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[Applause]

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[Music]

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next up guys we have Peter Todd uh very

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honored to have Peter Todd although I

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did have to pay a little extra for his

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presence uh full disclosure H but he

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allowed me to pay a m Monero but only

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half in Monero he required that I say

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the other half using

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Bitcoin let me get to it but actually

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using Bitcoin lightning and he uh he

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forced me to do this so through coer I I

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have adopted Bitcoin lightning um and I

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got to tell you man it was it was a pain

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it was a pay in the S I'm not going to

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lie it was a pain I had to pay I had to

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pay like eight four four or eight bucks

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to open up a channel and then my first

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transaction ended up being more

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expensive than a typical Monero

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payment but um he's a good sport uh

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actually Peter Todd is the reason I kind

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of really first got into Monero uh back

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in the day I would I would listen I

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heard him on various podcasts talking

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about the lack of fungibility in Bitcoin

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the lack of privacy potentially right

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that these ideas is and uh being on the

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lookout for other Solutions and he would

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mention and talk about Monero and uh

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that's kind of what led me down the the

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Bitcoin rabbit hole but without I mean

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the Monero rabbit hole without any

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further Ado Peter Todd take it away

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guys thank

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you all right so speaking of fees I mean

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really what this talk is about is how to

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go and pay miners

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and you know if I'm going to talk about

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how to go pay miners like we really got

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to go talk about you know what is a role

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of proof of work mining I mean why do we

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have this you know I mean is it about

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issuing new coins well first of all go

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say straight off mining is not about

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making new coins the fact it does is

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purely an implementation detail you know

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the reason why we have mining why we

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have proof of work is to make the chain

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hard to

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rewrite every single block that gets

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created it's a so with some provable

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work that's done which ultimately traces

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back to energy usage and you

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know as blocks are created that things

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that are deeper down in the chain are

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going to be more and more and more

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expensive to go reite you know I mean I

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personally um run open time stamps which

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is time stamping service and in my case

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with open time stamps I mean there's

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times when you might go reference a

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block like four years ago which is had

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the client output of like 10 nuclear

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power plants running continuously to you

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know go and rewrite

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but the bigger question is all right

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that's all well and good well how do we

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go pay for this I mean where does that

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money come

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from and this is block rewards um for

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Bitcoin um don't know how well you can

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see this but the yellow line is overall

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rewards and the green line is what

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they're worth in US Dollars and if you

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look at that yellow line you can see how

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it goes like down down well that's of

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course the famous big coin subsidy

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having where it started off at 50 coins

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and it dropped 25 and 12.5 and yeah now

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it's at 6.25 and it'll drop yet again in

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the long run on bitcoin that subsidy

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goes to

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zero now economically of course what

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matters is how does a subsidy reflect

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real value in US dollars is a reasonable

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you know reasonable approximation of

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that and it's kind of gone up it's kind

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of gone down it's a whole

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mess but the notable thing is well if

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it's if all of this if the subsid is

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going to go to zero eventually you have

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to go pay for everything with fees and

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here's the chart of the block

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fees and they've gone up some enormous

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spikes before but for most part block

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fees been fairly low and if you have a

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proof word currency and you're only

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paying it with fees this is potentially

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Troublesome because you always want to

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have some reason to go create a new

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block first of all because you want new

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blocks to keep on happening and second

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because there are also cases where

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miners might want to reorganize a

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blockchain like let's suppose for

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example there's a bunch of high fees and

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then there's no more fees well a minor

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coming after the high fees might say

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hang on a second I'd much rather go

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reorganize the chain and get those fees

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for myself and as it turns out only big

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miners can go do this profitably and we

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don't want that we want anyone who's

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mining to have roughly equal chances of

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earning money with a given capital

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investment you know know that's what

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keeps Mining decentralized and frankly

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that's just as true of Monero too I mean

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Monero say what you wants but the proof

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of work the fact is Monero still has

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these kinds of incentives with mining

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pools and you know regardless of how the

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proof of Works calculated there's this

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kind of

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incentive now recently of course on

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bitcoin if you've been following things

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you may have heard about all the

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incription stuff where people are paying

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tons and tons of money um I I believe

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current something like 10 million

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in the past couple months to get

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inscriptions mined and you know for a

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Minor's point of view this is great I

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mean for the first time in bitcoin's

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history as of today we might finally

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have a block that sort of organically

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has more transaction fees than block

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reward this has happened in the past

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before but usually for things like well

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someone did a weird auction a couple

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weeks ago where for highly technical

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reasons it created a ton of fees there's

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also been a few times when people have

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accidentally said very very large fee

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transactions but today might be the

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first time we actually flip that subsidy

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versus fees organically if you will on

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the other hand I mean that particular

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view of inscriptions was something a

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couple months ago this is what

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inscriptions look like today and it's a

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completely different Market yes this

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particular way of doing inscriptions is

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driving fees but you know will this be

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true in six months maybe maybe not I

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mean we just don't know how these things

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will go drive is you know will this lead

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to sustainable demand will it not

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honestly I don't know and I think as

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I'll argue on later it would be much

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better to go and have a system where you

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didn't have to go and do all you know

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have all these arguments and one way of

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doing it of course what monero's done

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which is a tail

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Mission so tail mission is kind of

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interesting

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because in many ways it's the simplest

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possible way to pay for mining security

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every block you create some coins out of

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thin air it's a fixed amount fixed

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amount forever and the math of this

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interestingly converges to a stable

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monetary Supply you know tail emission

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doesn't actually mean that the money

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supply is

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unlimited and why really comes down to

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people lose money like there are coins

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in existence which are lost the private

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keys for them are lost and absence of

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cryptography breakthrough which calls

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into question everything those coins

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will never move again in why this

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happens well I'll start off with a more

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mathy version of it I mean let's suppose

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you have you know the function n of T of

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your coin Supply and it starts off at

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some number and then you know you can go

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model as a slope K and you can take your

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derivative of it now that's a simple

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thing with lost

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coins mathematically what's interesting

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is the derivative of the coin

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Supply includes a certain percentage

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Lambda of all the coins out there the

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know Lambda being your lost coins rate

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so as that goes up you have your lost

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coins and you know you can do some math

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on it I mean frankly I use Wolfram also

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to figure this out but long story short

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is in the long run it converges to K

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Over Lambda why well you can go take

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notes on this but I think there's a much

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simpler way to look at this imagine you

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have a hose in a bucket and the bucket's

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got a hole in the

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bottom if you do this and put water into

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that bucket at a fixed

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rate because the amount of water coming

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out of that bucket varies by the level

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in the bucket it will eventually

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converge to stable

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equilibrium if you want to try it go

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ahead get a bucket put a hole in it it

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this this actually works and the math is

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exactly the same the reason why this

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works is because the pressure pushing

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coins out is the same either way

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if you don't want to believe me well

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like I say go try it

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yourself and I think what's interesting

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about this is when I describe this

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phenomenon to people how the actual

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monitary Supply converges one of the

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common questions get well how do you

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know if the coins are lost I mean

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certainly the how do you know I mean

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some coins May might not really be lost

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maybe the private keys are and well I

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think this gets down to what modeling

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really means you know when we talk about

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modeling these things you got to

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remember where using math to better

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understand a

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system if we do our math properly it

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doesn't matter the details of exactly

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what coins are lost at not you know we

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have a a system might not be a physical

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system but it's still a

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system and We Know It behaves by rules

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and in our case one of the rules set in

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stone is look inevitably coins will get

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lost I mean frankly in this room I'm

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sure if we put a hands for you know how

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many people have accidentally lost a

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coin everyone in this room pretty much

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is going to have to put up their hand

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like it happens and as long

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as you have new coins being created and

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coins being lost this is what will

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happen in the long run you will have a

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stable monetary supply of course the

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numbers won't look stable you know the

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number of coins in existence will appear

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to rise indefinitely but the economics

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don't work that way the economics do

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work PE people who lose coins they are

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out of the money supply so I think this

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is interesting but

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if you do this well how do you actually

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do this I mean how how do you go change

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this well in monero's case it's pretty

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simple Monero Community as a whole was

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willing to do hard Forks um I I would

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know I to my head how many hard Forks

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Mon's done but I think it's like four or

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something five higher 10 yeah I mean how

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many were how many were actually real in

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the sense they really need it or like I

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I I I don't know the details on this but

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you know search L more than one and you

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know in bitcoin's case of course that

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00:11:03,680 --> 00:11:08,639
number is a lot less but Monero you were

275
00:11:05,440 --> 00:11:10,800
willing to go do a hard fork in uh the

276
00:11:08,639 --> 00:11:12,920
hard Forks that made tail Miss Mission

277
00:11:10,800 --> 00:11:14,519
happen somewhere in the code you just

278
00:11:12,920 --> 00:11:15,600
said well rather than making the number

279
00:11:14,519 --> 00:11:17,440
go down we're just going to make it

280
00:11:15,600 --> 00:11:21,399
constant as of this block height or

281
00:11:17,440 --> 00:11:21,399
however the heck it was done very very

282
00:11:23,720 --> 00:11:29,639
simple

283
00:11:26,600 --> 00:11:32,120
now mono had an easy time impl this so

284
00:11:29,639 --> 00:11:34,480
now you really got to ask

285
00:11:32,120 --> 00:11:36,680
well if you do this what are the

286
00:11:34,480 --> 00:11:39,440
economics I mean what do what does this

287
00:11:36,680 --> 00:11:41,160
loss coin stuff really mean well you

288
00:11:39,440 --> 00:11:43,480
know of all the ways to go pay for

289
00:11:41,160 --> 00:11:47,240
mining security I think what's

290
00:11:43,480 --> 00:11:50,680
interesting about this lost coin stuff

291
00:11:47,240 --> 00:11:51,680
is I mean to give you an example like

292
00:11:50,680 --> 00:11:53,760
the

293
00:11:51,680 --> 00:11:55,639
bitcoin's price subsidy where it gets

294
00:11:53,760 --> 00:11:58,079
cut in half every time that's a very

295
00:11:55,639 --> 00:12:00,959
arbitrary thing you know these Cuts in

296
00:11:58,079 --> 00:12:02,639
half they don't directly map to any real

297
00:12:00,959 --> 00:12:05,040
world

298
00:12:02,639 --> 00:12:06,760
economics and real world economics is

299
00:12:05,040 --> 00:12:09,360
what is a Bitcoin worth you know what is

300
00:12:06,760 --> 00:12:11,360
a Monero worth saying that the subsidy

301
00:12:09,360 --> 00:12:14,079
will just cut in half every four years

302
00:12:11,360 --> 00:12:15,680
is just an arbitrary thing and you know

303
00:12:14,079 --> 00:12:17,399
for technical reasons arguably it was a

304
00:12:15,680 --> 00:12:19,519
terrible idea because having the subsidy

305
00:12:17,399 --> 00:12:21,519
suddenly get cut in half can result in

306
00:12:19,519 --> 00:12:23,600
cases where miners suddenly go bankrupt

307
00:12:21,519 --> 00:12:25,240
and they can't make blocks for uh for

308
00:12:23,600 --> 00:12:26,760
any amount of money and you know make

309
00:12:25,240 --> 00:12:29,440
blocks properly for any amount of money

310
00:12:26,760 --> 00:12:32,240
so it's it's a weird thing to have but

311
00:12:29,440 --> 00:12:34,959
more importantly it's arbitrary but with

312
00:12:32,240 --> 00:12:37,680
tail emission because in the long run

313
00:12:34,959 --> 00:12:40,120
tail emission converges to loss

314
00:12:37,680 --> 00:12:42,600
coins the economics really say that we

315
00:12:40,120 --> 00:12:45,160
will send the amount of money to

316
00:12:42,600 --> 00:12:47,040
miners equal to the amount of money

317
00:12:45,160 --> 00:12:49,320
people lose by

318
00:12:47,040 --> 00:12:50,959
accident and remember tail emission is

319
00:12:49,320 --> 00:12:54,120
inflationary in the sense that if not

320
00:12:50,959 --> 00:12:56,639
for this your coins would deflate in

321
00:12:54,120 --> 00:12:58,519
value because as coins get lost everyone

322
00:12:56,639 --> 00:13:01,480
else's coins become more valuable the

323
00:12:58,519 --> 00:13:04,360
two just happened to go cancel out now

324
00:13:01,480 --> 00:13:06,519
will miners make enough money well let's

325
00:13:04,360 --> 00:13:08,800
go back what what is the purpose of

326
00:13:06,519 --> 00:13:12,240
proof of work security it is to defeat a

327
00:13:08,800 --> 00:13:15,279
51% attack and also to go keep mining

328
00:13:12,240 --> 00:13:17,920
decentralized now I hate to say this but

329
00:13:15,279 --> 00:13:20,199
when it comes to defeating 51%

330
00:13:17,920 --> 00:13:23,240
tax that's a really difficult thing to

331
00:13:20,199 --> 00:13:26,000
model we we really don't know I mean how

332
00:13:23,240 --> 00:13:29,120
much money does the US governments have

333
00:13:26,000 --> 00:13:32,399
budgeted killing Bitcoin I don't know

334
00:13:29,120 --> 00:13:34,160
none of us know certainly it could I

335
00:13:32,399 --> 00:13:35,600
mean US government could decide to kill

336
00:13:34,160 --> 00:13:37,560
Bitcoin by just launching all the nukes

337
00:13:35,600 --> 00:13:40,000
and killing all life on this planet you

338
00:13:37,560 --> 00:13:41,279
know that is one way to kill Bitcoin but

339
00:13:40,000 --> 00:13:43,639
they're probably not going to do that

340
00:13:41,279 --> 00:13:46,160
because that is too much collateral

341
00:13:43,639 --> 00:13:49,040
damage on the other hand I mean if the

342
00:13:46,160 --> 00:13:50,800
proof of work security was Zero I might

343
00:13:49,040 --> 00:13:53,320
go kill Bitcoin just for fun it'd be

344
00:13:50,800 --> 00:13:55,759
kind of cool do a 51% STX see all this

345
00:13:53,320 --> 00:13:59,399
Bitcoin stuff done so obviously there is

346
00:13:55,759 --> 00:14:00,880
a range there where you where you have

347
00:13:59,399 --> 00:14:02,360
enough money to defeat your likely

348
00:14:00,880 --> 00:14:05,120
attackers and you certainly don't want

349
00:14:02,360 --> 00:14:07,680
to have too little and I think an

350
00:14:05,120 --> 00:14:10,480
argument with tail emission is well we

351
00:14:07,680 --> 00:14:13,560
got to pay something let's go pay

352
00:14:10,480 --> 00:14:17,160
something that's big enough that is not

353
00:14:13,560 --> 00:14:19,720
zero and also small enough that's not

354
00:14:17,160 --> 00:14:22,480
unaffordable the rat of lost coins might

355
00:14:19,720 --> 00:14:23,600
not be enough to keep attackers away but

356
00:14:22,480 --> 00:14:24,880
it's certainly is something that's

357
00:14:23,600 --> 00:14:27,639
affordable because that's the money you

358
00:14:24,880 --> 00:14:30,600
lose by accident if you stop losing it

359
00:14:27,639 --> 00:14:34,120
by accident I mean it'll it'll adjust

360
00:14:30,600 --> 00:14:34,120
but that is what it

361
00:14:35,839 --> 00:14:43,959
is now can Bitcoin add tail Mission well

362
00:14:40,320 --> 00:14:46,160
for a technical perspective yes it could

363
00:14:43,959 --> 00:14:48,639
I mean Bitcoin can in theory do hard

364
00:14:46,160 --> 00:14:50,320
Forks if everyone agrees to it early in

365
00:14:48,639 --> 00:14:52,320
bitcoin's history there's actually an

366
00:14:50,320 --> 00:14:55,560
example of probably the Ultimate Hard

367
00:14:52,320 --> 00:14:58,360
Fork which is the Bitcoin white

368
00:14:55,560 --> 00:15:00,880
paper it made the mistake of saying

369
00:14:58,360 --> 00:15:04,240
theit Bitcoin blockchain is defined by

370
00:15:00,880 --> 00:15:06,160
the number of blocks more blocks wins

371
00:15:04,240 --> 00:15:08,639
that's rule got baked into Bitcoin

372
00:15:06,160 --> 00:15:10,120
version 0.1.0 and that rule is

373
00:15:08,639 --> 00:15:12,480
completely

374
00:15:10,120 --> 00:15:14,920
busted you know the chain selection has

375
00:15:12,480 --> 00:15:17,120
to be work the most work not the number

376
00:15:14,920 --> 00:15:19,000
of blocks and sure enough Bitcoin in

377
00:15:17,120 --> 00:15:20,920
very early history arguably did a hard

378
00:15:19,000 --> 00:15:22,320
Fork to go fix this because that was

379
00:15:20,920 --> 00:15:24,839
just totally busted it was a terrible

380
00:15:22,320 --> 00:15:27,320
idea Bitcoin also did a few other hard

381
00:15:24,839 --> 00:15:28,759
Forks that were often a lot of the stuff

382
00:15:27,320 --> 00:15:31,519
were things that we only realized

383
00:15:28,759 --> 00:15:33,399
recently going back in the old git repo

384
00:15:31,519 --> 00:15:35,040
history and like looking very carefully

385
00:15:33,399 --> 00:15:38,040
at things sat Toshi changed without

386
00:15:35,040 --> 00:15:40,360
telling anyone so certainly in early

387
00:15:38,040 --> 00:15:42,440
history when like barely anyone was

388
00:15:40,360 --> 00:15:44,000
involved there only you know probably a

389
00:15:42,440 --> 00:15:46,839
couple hundred notes yeah you could get

390
00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:49,040
away with the stuff pretty easily now

391
00:15:46,839 --> 00:15:50,519
well an example of why it's hard to do a

392
00:15:49,040 --> 00:15:52,639
hard Fork now is you have things like

393
00:15:50,519 --> 00:15:54,720
start n Labs who sell little

394
00:15:52,639 --> 00:15:57,279
self-contained Bitcoin boxes that a lot

395
00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:59,199
of people use and there's no easy way to

396
00:15:57,279 --> 00:16:00,839
convince those people to go and upgrade

397
00:15:59,199 --> 00:16:02,319
their software to what you think is this

398
00:16:00,839 --> 00:16:04,560
new fancy version of

399
00:16:02,319 --> 00:16:07,319
Bitcoin they could with enough

400
00:16:04,560 --> 00:16:08,839
convincing and you know all this tail

401
00:16:07,319 --> 00:16:10,319
emission stuff is probably something

402
00:16:08,839 --> 00:16:12,839
that's for Bitcoin at least is only

403
00:16:10,319 --> 00:16:14,360
relevant maybe 10 years out you know if

404
00:16:12,839 --> 00:16:16,880
I do enough these talks maybe we'll

405
00:16:14,360 --> 00:16:20,480
convince everyone

406
00:16:16,880 --> 00:16:23,519
but I I I don't have my hopes up let's

407
00:16:20,480 --> 00:16:25,480
put it that way and currently the only

408
00:16:23,519 --> 00:16:27,959
set in stone reason why Bitcoin

409
00:16:25,480 --> 00:16:31,880
definitely needs to hard Fork is in the

410
00:16:27,959 --> 00:16:34,199
year 2 32 or 2130 whatever it was where

411
00:16:31,880 --> 00:16:36,399
literally the time field in blocks rolls

412
00:16:34,199 --> 00:16:38,639
over because it's 32 bits and when that

413
00:16:36,399 --> 00:16:40,560
happens Bitcoin ceases to work and yeah

414
00:16:38,639 --> 00:16:42,880
they'll have to hardw workk then but

415
00:16:40,560 --> 00:16:45,440
that is well passed when mining rewards

416
00:16:42,880 --> 00:16:47,680
effectively go to nothing so who knows

417
00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:50,040
what'll happen but there's another way

418
00:16:47,680 --> 00:16:51,920
to do it which is

419
00:16:50,040 --> 00:16:54,839
diage

420
00:16:51,920 --> 00:16:59,319
now what is inflation well inflation is

421
00:16:54,839 --> 00:17:01,319
a tax on savings I own money it's being

422
00:16:59,319 --> 00:17:04,079
inflated away

423
00:17:01,319 --> 00:17:06,600
thus monetarily speaking I am losing

424
00:17:04,079 --> 00:17:08,160
money in proportion to the inflation

425
00:17:06,600 --> 00:17:12,120
what's demage well we just do this

426
00:17:08,160 --> 00:17:14,120
directly we say that well if you have a

427
00:17:12,120 --> 00:17:18,799
transaction if you have money on the

428
00:17:14,120 --> 00:17:21,480
Chain over time the value that goes down

429
00:17:18,799 --> 00:17:23,760
and a lot of people kind of assume that

430
00:17:21,480 --> 00:17:25,760
demage couldn't be done without a hard

431
00:17:23,760 --> 00:17:27,959
Fork because certainly like you need to

432
00:17:25,760 --> 00:17:29,120
make the values change somehow right

433
00:17:27,959 --> 00:17:30,880
well

434
00:17:29,120 --> 00:17:33,200
curiously enough there's a way to go do

435
00:17:30,880 --> 00:17:34,760
it in a softwork where it's just

436
00:17:33,200 --> 00:17:36,640
backwards compatible now remember

437
00:17:34,760 --> 00:17:39,720
Bitcoin has transaction fees when er has

438
00:17:36,640 --> 00:17:42,679
transaction fees too well you can do a

439
00:17:39,720 --> 00:17:44,520
rule where you take the sum of all of

440
00:17:42,679 --> 00:17:48,760
the inputs of the transactions all of

441
00:17:44,520 --> 00:17:51,559
your VI times the time they've been in

442
00:17:48,760 --> 00:17:53,880
existence sum all of that money up all

443
00:17:51,559 --> 00:17:57,400
of that Bitcoin days destroyed if you

444
00:17:53,880 --> 00:18:01,120
will and multiply it by some tax

445
00:17:57,400 --> 00:18:03,600
rate and that's your tax for that block

446
00:18:01,120 --> 00:18:05,039
that's your demarrage tax and you can do

447
00:18:03,600 --> 00:18:07,520
something kind of clever which is say

448
00:18:05,039 --> 00:18:09,440
well now Bitcoin miners have to have an

449
00:18:07,520 --> 00:18:13,520
output in their

450
00:18:09,440 --> 00:18:16,080
coinbase equal to that amount and that

451
00:18:13,520 --> 00:18:19,039
output goes into a pool of funds that

452
00:18:16,080 --> 00:18:20,240
all miners can spend from over time so

453
00:18:19,039 --> 00:18:23,640
you're

454
00:18:20,240 --> 00:18:25,640
taking your demage tax putting it into a

455
00:18:23,640 --> 00:18:28,200
pool and then miners spend out of that

456
00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:30,440
pool and every single thing I said can

457
00:18:28,200 --> 00:18:32,679
be implented by adding new rules to

458
00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:34,960
bitcoin that make previously valid

459
00:18:32,679 --> 00:18:37,799
blocks invalid and that's the key thing

460
00:18:34,960 --> 00:18:41,120
if you're running a Bitcoin

461
00:18:37,799 --> 00:18:43,440
node without demage implemented you all

462
00:18:41,120 --> 00:18:45,360
your node sees is for some reason miners

463
00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:47,840
gave away money that's all they would

464
00:18:45,360 --> 00:18:49,640
see which makes a totally valid block

465
00:18:47,840 --> 00:18:52,080
and thus backwards

466
00:18:49,640 --> 00:18:53,840
compatible now will miners implement

467
00:18:52,080 --> 00:18:57,080
this I don't

468
00:18:53,840 --> 00:18:59,000
know it's it's really hard to go say

469
00:18:57,080 --> 00:19:01,200
they certainly could from technical

470
00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:02,799
perspective and because we don't need

471
00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:05,280
the whole world of Bitcoin upgrade at

472
00:19:02,799 --> 00:19:06,000
once this is much more feasible to add

473
00:19:05,280 --> 00:19:07,600
to

474
00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:10,640
bitcoin

475
00:19:07,600 --> 00:19:13,720
and if your tax rate is low enough for

476
00:19:10,640 --> 00:19:13,720
the most part people are going to

477
00:19:16,360 --> 00:19:22,960
notice because I mean what's the cost of

478
00:19:18,559 --> 00:19:26,760
security let's say you have a 1% tax

479
00:19:22,960 --> 00:19:30,039
over 50 years that works out to be 64%

480
00:19:26,760 --> 00:19:32,360
0.5% over 50 years that works it be 28%

481
00:19:30,039 --> 00:19:34,679
by the time we get down to like 0.1%

482
00:19:32,360 --> 00:19:37,039
it's like

483
00:19:34,679 --> 00:19:40,039
5% and of course Bitcoin transactions

484
00:19:37,039 --> 00:19:41,600
already pay transaction fees so other

485
00:19:40,039 --> 00:19:43,159
than very large transactions you

486
00:19:41,600 --> 00:19:44,760
probably wouldn't notice any of this and

487
00:19:43,159 --> 00:19:46,640
because transaction fees change over

488
00:19:44,760 --> 00:19:49,559
time Bitcoin wallets are actually very

489
00:19:46,640 --> 00:19:52,280
resistant to or very resilient in the

490
00:19:49,559 --> 00:19:53,720
face of changing transaction fees if I

491
00:19:52,280 --> 00:19:56,559
go send you money and the transaction

492
00:19:53,720 --> 00:19:58,080
doesn't confirm Bitcoin wallets have a

493
00:19:56,559 --> 00:20:00,000
you know at least decent ones have a way

494
00:19:58,080 --> 00:20:01,960
to to replace that transaction with one

495
00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:05,400
sending even more money to

496
00:20:01,960 --> 00:20:06,799
fees and if miners Implement demage

497
00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:08,200
that's probably what will happen and

498
00:20:06,799 --> 00:20:10,480
this will just naturally work its way

499
00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:12,679
out and the only times this will really

500
00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:13,799
be noticed is you know people moving say

501
00:20:12,679 --> 00:20:17,080
a million dollars worth of bitcoin

502
00:20:13,799 --> 00:20:18,600
around then the then the fees over say a

503
00:20:17,080 --> 00:20:20,640
month or two of holding it start to add

504
00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:23,679
up but for most part you know this can

505
00:20:20,640 --> 00:20:25,240
all be implemented backwards compatibly

506
00:20:23,679 --> 00:20:27,480
and maybe looking at this from a

507
00:20:25,240 --> 00:20:28,720
different perspective I mean I like to

508
00:20:27,480 --> 00:20:32,600
point out

509
00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:34,600
if you can't afford you know 5% over 50

510
00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:37,039
years the time you're likely to hold

511
00:20:34,600 --> 00:20:38,880
your coins if all you do you know is

512
00:20:37,039 --> 00:20:41,760
start working when you're like 25 and

513
00:20:38,880 --> 00:20:43,799
live to your 75 I mean what are you

514
00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:46,039
doing with your life like certainly

515
00:20:43,799 --> 00:20:48,200
you're willing to pay 5% to keep your

516
00:20:46,039 --> 00:20:51,919
coin secure you know even if all you do

517
00:20:48,200 --> 00:20:53,880
is hoddle you do have an incentive make

518
00:20:51,919 --> 00:20:56,039
sure coin continues to run you know the

519
00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:57,840
value of your coins are based on the

520
00:20:56,039 --> 00:20:59,080
fact that you can make a transaction now

521
00:20:57,840 --> 00:21:01,320
sell sell those coins and everything

522
00:20:59,080 --> 00:21:03,520
will work fine you know in the case of

523
00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:05,600
the lightning Network I mean it's even

524
00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:06,840
more critical for Bitcoin mining proceed

525
00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:08,760
in orderly Pace because if I have a

526
00:21:06,840 --> 00:21:11,720
lightning Channel certainly you know I

527
00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:13,840
can go send you a Satoshi with but a

528
00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:16,880
Satoshi worth of fees I mean I can do

529
00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:18,600
all this great stuff but the only reason

530
00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:21,000
I can do that is because if my

531
00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:22,480
counterparty decides screw me over I can

532
00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:23,400
do an onchain transaction to get my

533
00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:26,120
money

534
00:21:23,400 --> 00:21:28,559
back lightning is absolutely dependent

535
00:21:26,120 --> 00:21:30,880
on mining working continuing work and

536
00:21:28,559 --> 00:21:33,559
just proceeding in a normal boring base

537
00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:35,919
so yeah lightning channels should in

538
00:21:33,559 --> 00:21:38,400
theory welcome this yes it means you'll

539
00:21:35,919 --> 00:21:40,559
spend a little bit of money but you know

540
00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:43,600
it is what it is we're much better off

541
00:21:40,559 --> 00:21:45,320
if this type of security always exists

542
00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:46,720
and and you know and when you talk about

543
00:21:45,320 --> 00:21:48,000
the backwards compatible version where

544
00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:50,120
you're just taking a tax when

545
00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:53,000
transactions are

546
00:21:50,120 --> 00:21:56,080
spent because you average this out over

547
00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:57,760
time it doesn't matter that you know

548
00:21:56,080 --> 00:21:59,159
maybe some people will go not pay the

549
00:21:57,760 --> 00:22:02,039
tax for a while other people would pay

550
00:21:59,159 --> 00:22:05,200
it sooner overall it'll just result in a

551
00:22:02,039 --> 00:22:05,200
steady income supply for

552
00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:11,320
Miners and another argument I'll make is

553
00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:13,600
well if we're talking about you know 5%

554
00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:15,880
over 50 years do you really think the

555
00:22:13,600 --> 00:22:17,760
Bitcoin price is going to be that stable

556
00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:19,600
over that period of time I mean that's

557
00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:22,720
the graph for just the past five years

558
00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:22,720
and it's up like

559
00:22:22,919 --> 00:22:28,640
250% you know the fact is the cost of

560
00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:31,000
inflation for Bitcoin right now and

561
00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:33,840
right now it's about 1.5% monetary it

562
00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:36,320
it's just a total wash economic shifts

563
00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:39,480
in the value of a coin matter far more

564
00:22:36,320 --> 00:22:39,480
than this tiny little bit of

565
00:22:44,760 --> 00:22:50,000
tax do you love coffee and Monera as

566
00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:52,720
much as we do consider making gratuitous

567
00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:54,840
dorg your daily cup pay with Monera for

568
00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:57,039
premium fresh beans and if you like what

569
00:22:54,840 --> 00:22:59,440
you taste send a digital cash tip

570
00:22:57,039 --> 00:23:02,320
directly to the gu all and Farmers that

571
00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:05,780
made it possible proceeds help us grow

572
00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:08,910
this channel gratuitous and

573
00:23:05,780 --> 00:23:08,910
[Music]

574
00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:17,520
Monero so as for Bitcoin you know should

575
00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:18,960
the supply be changed well I'm not the

576
00:23:17,520 --> 00:23:21,320
only person who goes and thinks this I

577
00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:24,880
mean Andrew pller is another well-known

578
00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:26,880
uh Bitcoin Dev and uh you know at tab

579
00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:29,279
comp fiz it two years

580
00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:31,320
ago he said quite clearly like it's a

581
00:23:29,279 --> 00:23:34,240
scary change to the system as the

582
00:23:31,320 --> 00:23:35,480
subsidy goes down and you know I myself

583
00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:36,840
I've said this for a long time and

584
00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:38,960
Bitcoin should have had some kind of

585
00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:41,440
Perpetual inflation you know this case I

586
00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:43,520
said 1% but you know he can quibble on

587
00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:45,000
the exact amount I mean I think banero

588
00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:47,600
did the right thing in fixing this

589
00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:49,240
problem but you know with all that said

590
00:23:47,600 --> 00:23:51,960
I also should point out the other thing

591
00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:53,400
Andrew folster said which was uh you

592
00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:55,880
know he hates being on panels with

593
00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:58,400
podcasters because they worried to uh

594
00:23:55,880 --> 00:24:00,240
trick me in saying something stupid and

595
00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:01,799
uh I should go leave with uh something

596
00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:04,200
you can quote me on which is kittens

597
00:24:01,799 --> 00:24:05,520
aren't adorable you know they'll make be

598
00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:09,279
real

599
00:24:05,520 --> 00:24:09,279
popular so thank

600
00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:16,559
[Applause]

601
00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:18,640
you that was fantastic man well worth

602
00:24:16,559 --> 00:24:22,400
being forced into used the Bitcoin

603
00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:22,400
lightning um any

604
00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:29,559
questions thank you Peter for this talk

605
00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:31,679
um so with the the be uh applied only

606
00:24:29,559 --> 00:24:34,799
when there's a transaction or would that

607
00:24:31,679 --> 00:24:38,679
be applied when people don't move their

608
00:24:34,799 --> 00:24:40,480
Bitcoin uh well in the soft Fork version

609
00:24:38,679 --> 00:24:43,559
your only option is to do it when you

610
00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:45,440
spend the coin um there's no there's no

611
00:24:43,559 --> 00:24:47,320
there's no way you can do it at a soft

612
00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:49,279
Fork where you take the value from coins

613
00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:51,159
that haven't been spent and one of the

614
00:24:49,279 --> 00:24:52,640
interesting things about this is since

615
00:24:51,159 --> 00:24:55,240
it would only apply to coins that get

616
00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:58,080
spent in this case the demarrage tax

617
00:24:55,240 --> 00:25:02,279
rate would actually apply to roughly

618
00:24:58,080 --> 00:25:03,679
speaking the economic um monetary Supply

619
00:25:02,279 --> 00:25:05,039
cuz coins that have been lost and just

620
00:25:03,679 --> 00:25:07,480
never move they'll never get the tax

621
00:25:05,039 --> 00:25:09,720
supplied so you can actually go and say

622
00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:11,799
well of the whole economic Supply we

623
00:25:09,720 --> 00:25:13,919
want say take maybe you know 0.5% per

624
00:25:11,799 --> 00:25:16,039
year or something so it it's it's

625
00:25:13,919 --> 00:25:17,799
interesting how you can do that um now

626
00:25:16,039 --> 00:25:20,760
in a hard Fork absolutely you could

627
00:25:17,799 --> 00:25:23,279
apply it to the raw number but

628
00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:24,679
accounting wise demage sucks you know

629
00:25:23,279 --> 00:25:26,600
nobody wants to have accounting where

630
00:25:24,679 --> 00:25:28,520
the value where the numbers themselves

631
00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:30,600
go down you know it's annoying to deal

632
00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:33,159
with in protocols like lightning there's

633
00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:35,559
no reason to do it other than to make it

634
00:25:33,159 --> 00:25:37,000
implementable so in a hard Fork yeah

635
00:25:35,559 --> 00:25:38,480
You' never do it that way you just go do

636
00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:40,320
it with tail Miss Mission or you know

637
00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:43,480
something else that inflates the

638
00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:43,480
currency thank

639
00:25:44,120 --> 00:25:47,600
you all right who

640
00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:52,520
else uh thanks Peter two quick questions

641
00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:54,880
number one does this then assume with

642
00:25:52,520 --> 00:25:57,080
the demor I'll call it a proposal but

643
00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:59,080
with with demage compatibility it

644
00:25:57,080 --> 00:26:00,760
assumes that something like confident

645
00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:03,159
confidential transactions would never be

646
00:26:00,760 --> 00:26:04,799
adopted then the base layer um and then

647
00:26:03,159 --> 00:26:07,799
second

648
00:26:04,799 --> 00:26:09,840
um what's I mean so the demarrage is

649
00:26:07,799 --> 00:26:12,159
effectively then just an additional fee

650
00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:14,039
then on the per transaction basis when

651
00:26:12,159 --> 00:26:17,919
you're talking about what would be

652
00:26:14,039 --> 00:26:19,559
backwards compatible so is this um to

653
00:26:17,919 --> 00:26:21,640
what extent do you think that this

654
00:26:19,559 --> 00:26:24,399
provides a further incentive for mining

655
00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:27,039
security as opposed to just miners

656
00:26:24,399 --> 00:26:29,760
hypothetically hyping hiking higher

657
00:26:27,039 --> 00:26:32,399
direct Fe fees on

658
00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:35,640
transactions well I mean so so I should

659
00:26:32,399 --> 00:26:38,320
speak to fees in general like fee the

660
00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:40,480
fee Market in Bitcoin is a very

661
00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:42,720
competitive market um it's very

662
00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:44,159
difficult for miners to go hike fees

663
00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:46,640
because they'll be outbid by other

664
00:26:44,159 --> 00:26:49,840
miners who go who go take fees at lower

665
00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:51,159
rates so you know fees on bitcoin are

666
00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:52,880
really what they are there it's the

667
00:26:51,159 --> 00:26:55,279
supply of people willing to pay at the

668
00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:58,159
given amount and miners don't have much

669
00:26:55,279 --> 00:27:00,399
control of this other than you know one

670
00:26:58,159 --> 00:27:02,600
way you can go and portray a soft fork

671
00:27:00,399 --> 00:27:04,520
for demarrage is colluding together to

672
00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:06,440
go add a new type of feet I mean that's

673
00:27:04,520 --> 00:27:08,960
that's one way you can go describe this

674
00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:12,279
and I I don't think that that view of

675
00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:14,320
it's necessarily wrong but going back to

676
00:27:12,279 --> 00:27:16,120
confidential transactions I mean first

677
00:27:14,320 --> 00:27:17,760
of all I'll say I think Bitcoin

678
00:27:16,120 --> 00:27:21,120
implementing conf confidential

679
00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:24,000
transactions on the Bas layer is very

680
00:27:21,120 --> 00:27:27,799
unlikely um it can be done as a soft

681
00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:29,600
fork with some very careful work but

682
00:27:27,799 --> 00:27:32,320
ignoring that ignoring the technical

683
00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:35,360
complexity I think the bigger issue is

684
00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:36,720
that Bitcoin is extremely valuable you

685
00:27:35,360 --> 00:27:38,360
know you're looking at a system that

686
00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:40,679
right now market cap is probably like

687
00:27:38,360 --> 00:27:42,960
half a trillion dollars the unfortunate

688
00:27:40,679 --> 00:27:44,600
reality is cryptography isn't that

689
00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:46,640
mature

690
00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:48,320
and if you implement something like

691
00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:50,960
confidential transactions you're

692
00:27:48,320 --> 00:27:52,440
dramatically increasing the risk of a

693
00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:54,880
technical failure that destroys the

694
00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:56,840
currency because if you have inflation

695
00:27:54,880 --> 00:27:58,720
and that's uncaught with componential

696
00:27:56,840 --> 00:28:01,399
transactions it's very difficult to deal

697
00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:03,039
with this you know zcash as an example

698
00:28:01,399 --> 00:28:05,240
had inflation bug and absolutely could

699
00:28:03,039 --> 00:28:08,559
have killed zcash there's no doubt about

700
00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:09,720
it Bitcoin has had inflation bug and

701
00:28:08,559 --> 00:28:12,080
there's no way it could have killed

702
00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:13,960
Bitcoin as any idiot with a calculator

703
00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:16,039
can go add the numbers up and say oh

704
00:28:13,960 --> 00:28:18,440
yeah obviously that transaction was

705
00:28:16,039 --> 00:28:21,200
bugged obviously we should go fix it by

706
00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:22,799
just not allowing overflow obviously the

707
00:28:21,200 --> 00:28:25,440
thing to do is just roll back a couple

708
00:28:22,799 --> 00:28:27,080
blocks and you know go forward I mean

709
00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:30,600
it's it's just so much easier from a

710
00:28:27,080 --> 00:28:33,120
technical perspective to deal with this

711
00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:35,799
now if we're talking 20 years in the

712
00:28:33,120 --> 00:28:37,360
future maybe the world's programing

713
00:28:35,799 --> 00:28:39,440
Community would have more confidence in

714
00:28:37,360 --> 00:28:41,840
this and might say it's worth the risks

715
00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:44,080
but you know would we add confidential

716
00:28:41,840 --> 00:28:46,440
transactions Bitcoin right now I would

717
00:28:44,080 --> 00:28:48,679
argue against it purely on the basis of

718
00:28:46,440 --> 00:28:49,880
this is a really risky thing because if

719
00:28:48,679 --> 00:28:52,120
Bitcoin

720
00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:53,840
dies you lose all that perer work

721
00:28:52,120 --> 00:28:55,799
security and there's no guarantee that

722
00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:58,799
you'll ever get a Bitcoin bootstrapped

723
00:28:55,799 --> 00:29:00,960
again you know you could easily have

724
00:28:58,799 --> 00:29:03,120
easily try to bootstrap Bitcoin again

725
00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:05,720
and all all that happens is to get 51%

726
00:29:03,120 --> 00:29:07,960
stacked over and over again like it's

727
00:29:05,720 --> 00:29:13,080
just I don't think it's worth the

728
00:29:07,960 --> 00:29:15,600
risk uh but hang on but I will say

729
00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:18,000
there's probably a way to do demarrage

730
00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:21,159
with confidential transactions that

731
00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:23,200
certainly only leaks the total amount of

732
00:29:21,159 --> 00:29:25,799
input and there may be an even more

733
00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:28,200
clever way to do it where for instance

734
00:29:25,799 --> 00:29:30,279
you provide a proof to min errors that

735
00:29:28,200 --> 00:29:32,440
then they're able to collectively prove

736
00:29:30,279 --> 00:29:34,880
yes the total input to this block was

737
00:29:32,440 --> 00:29:37,279
this without revealing individual

738
00:29:34,880 --> 00:29:39,840
transactions because a Nuance I didn't

739
00:29:37,279 --> 00:29:42,000
cover in my talk was that the reason why

740
00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:45,200
you would make a softwork rule be there

741
00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:48,279
must be an output with a value equal to

742
00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:50,039
the sum is that in case transactions

743
00:29:48,279 --> 00:29:52,399
where one transaction is paying for a

744
00:29:50,039 --> 00:29:55,000
previous one you actually want fees to

745
00:29:52,399 --> 00:29:56,720
be flexible you don't want to say every

746
00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:59,000
transaction has to pay this amount of

747
00:29:56,720 --> 00:30:00,840
fees for the demage you say well

748
00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:02,799
collectively it has to pay however you

749
00:30:00,840 --> 00:30:04,880
figure out how to go do it that's fine

750
00:30:02,799 --> 00:30:06,840
so you know long story short is there

751
00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:08,120
may be ways but I don't think the tech

752
00:30:06,840 --> 00:30:12,080
risk is worth

753
00:30:08,120 --> 00:30:15,279
it uh so my question is is the demor is

754
00:30:12,080 --> 00:30:17,760
the soft Fork demage text opt in for

755
00:30:15,279 --> 00:30:20,320
transaction

756
00:30:17,760 --> 00:30:22,360
authors well I mean right now you can

757
00:30:20,320 --> 00:30:25,760
opt into demage but just paying more

758
00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:28,559
money you know it only has a purpose if

759
00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:30,880
by opt in if if it's something that is

760
00:30:28,559 --> 00:30:34,679
applied to everyone so the reason I

761
00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:37,240
asked this is if it's opt in then miners

762
00:30:34,679 --> 00:30:40,240
who don't enforce the demage attack will

763
00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:41,559
have a competitive advantage over minor

764
00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:44,279
that's why it has to be done as a soft

765
00:30:41,559 --> 00:30:45,679
Fork where the majority of hashing power

766
00:30:44,279 --> 00:30:48,720
collectively agrees we're going to do

767
00:30:45,679 --> 00:30:50,960
this and ideally a soft Fork where you

768
00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:52,440
know the signif at least significant

769
00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:54,720
percentage of node Runners agree that

770
00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:56,880
this is a good idea too and you know I

771
00:30:54,720 --> 00:31:00,159
should point out historically soft forks

772
00:30:56,880 --> 00:31:03,200
and Bitcoin coin have been things where

773
00:31:00,159 --> 00:31:06,039
by the time the softwork actually

774
00:31:03,200 --> 00:31:08,919
activates certainly a strong minority

775
00:31:06,039 --> 00:31:11,880
and probably a super majority of actual

776
00:31:08,919 --> 00:31:13,720
nodes doing actual economic transactions

777
00:31:11,880 --> 00:31:15,559
have upgraded to the new rules and

778
00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:17,519
decided that blocks that do not follow

779
00:31:15,559 --> 00:31:20,240
these rules will be

780
00:31:17,519 --> 00:31:21,600
rejected I see it's hard for me to keep

781
00:31:20,240 --> 00:31:23,480
track of the different difference

782
00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:26,559
between soft and hard forking because we

783
00:31:23,480 --> 00:31:28,080
only we only do hard Forks well you know

784
00:31:26,559 --> 00:31:30,360
you you guys have a lot more flexibility

785
00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:31,760
because monero's tiny I mean Bitcoin is

786
00:31:30,360 --> 00:31:34,519
a very different

787
00:31:31,760 --> 00:31:37,360
animal so what would you say is the best

788
00:31:34,519 --> 00:31:39,880
argument then against this demage

789
00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:41,159
approach this potential of adding this

790
00:31:39,880 --> 00:31:43,519
to bitcoin what would be the best

791
00:31:41,159 --> 00:31:46,519
argument against doing it I

792
00:31:43,519 --> 00:31:48,399
mean so what I think one argument

793
00:31:46,519 --> 00:31:50,600
against it would be why don't you just

794
00:31:48,399 --> 00:31:53,679
go do tail Mission and do a hard Fork

795
00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:55,919
but I think the broader argument is

796
00:31:53,679 --> 00:31:59,120
regardless of exactly what approach you

797
00:31:55,919 --> 00:32:00,600
you use tail Mission De whatever is why

798
00:31:59,120 --> 00:32:02,480
are you going to take all this risks

799
00:32:00,600 --> 00:32:03,880
potentially splitting the community and

800
00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:05,639
creating a whole bunch of social media

801
00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:09,039
drama over something that may not be

802
00:32:05,639 --> 00:32:11,519
needed now what I would say to that is

803
00:32:09,039 --> 00:32:14,399
well Bitcoin inflation rate right now is

804
00:32:11,519 --> 00:32:15,600
like 1.5% it's roughly 10 years till

805
00:32:14,399 --> 00:32:18,799
it's about

806
00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:21,000
0.1% that's sort of the time frame when

807
00:32:18,799 --> 00:32:22,360
this type of thing should be implemented

808
00:32:21,000 --> 00:32:23,799
maybe in 10 years we're going to find

809
00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:25,840
pretty strong evidence no no the feed

810
00:32:23,799 --> 00:32:27,960
Market really did develop what you know

811
00:32:25,840 --> 00:32:30,399
there's always a reason to mind block

812
00:32:27,960 --> 00:32:32,480
this isn't a concern that would be great

813
00:32:30,399 --> 00:32:34,880
I hope that happens but I would like the

814
00:32:32,480 --> 00:32:36,200
community to be ready so you know I

815
00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:37,799
think that's your strongest argument

816
00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:40,120
against it thank

817
00:32:37,799 --> 00:32:41,960
you uh thank you for the talk I'm

818
00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:44,519
thinking about the lightning Network so

819
00:32:41,960 --> 00:32:47,120
the demor uh solves the bookkeeping

820
00:32:44,519 --> 00:32:49,320
problem on chain for sure but if you

821
00:32:47,120 --> 00:32:51,360
have lightning aren't then older

822
00:32:49,320 --> 00:32:53,200
channels a bit more fractional Reserve

823
00:32:51,360 --> 00:32:55,480
compared to newer ones and how would you

824
00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:57,159
solve it in the lightning Network well

825
00:32:55,480 --> 00:32:58,840
keep in mind I mean lightning already

826
00:32:57,159 --> 00:33:00,919
has this issue where the value of a

827
00:32:58,840 --> 00:33:03,760
channel depends on the fees required to

828
00:33:00,919 --> 00:33:07,279
go close it and for the most part

829
00:33:03,760 --> 00:33:08,840
lightning has not gone and put much like

830
00:33:07,279 --> 00:33:10,200
I should say lightning implementations

831
00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:12,639
have not gone and put a lot of effort

832
00:33:10,200 --> 00:33:14,919
and keeping track of this um lightning

833
00:33:12,639 --> 00:33:17,240
channels do get occasionally closed

834
00:33:14,919 --> 00:33:19,639
because the estimated fee rate to do

835
00:33:17,240 --> 00:33:21,559
certain things has gone up too much and

836
00:33:19,639 --> 00:33:22,760
the two sides don't agree that the

837
00:33:21,559 --> 00:33:24,559
channel should remain open and they

838
00:33:22,760 --> 00:33:25,480
close on that basis and this this is

839
00:33:24,559 --> 00:33:28,200
something that's implemented

840
00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:30,960
automatically now if you were to go do

841
00:33:28,200 --> 00:33:33,440
this with demage well obviously since

842
00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:34,799
the amount of money it takes sorry

843
00:33:33,440 --> 00:33:36,679
should say since the amount of money you

844
00:33:34,799 --> 00:33:39,279
get when you close the channel would

845
00:33:36,679 --> 00:33:41,559
diminish over time above and beyond fee

846
00:33:39,279 --> 00:33:44,679
changes well the obvious way to go do

847
00:33:41,559 --> 00:33:47,559
this is take advantage of the fee change

848
00:33:44,679 --> 00:33:49,720
code and say well on top of estimated

849
00:33:47,559 --> 00:33:52,639
fees we know that the value is going

850
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:55,720
down and just rebroadcast our estimated

851
00:33:52,639 --> 00:33:58,519
value of the channel so that the total

852
00:33:55,720 --> 00:34:01,200
amount takes us into count now if you go

853
00:33:58,519 --> 00:34:03,240
with a number like say .1% you know per

854
00:34:01,200 --> 00:34:04,519
year realistically a lot of this just be

855
00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:06,480
papered over because it really doesn't

856
00:34:04,519 --> 00:34:08,800
matter that much but certainly if you

857
00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:10,639
tried to demage it like 50% per year

858
00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:13,399
you'd be utterly insane not to take this

859
00:34:10,639 --> 00:34:14,440
into account and between the two options

860
00:34:13,399 --> 00:34:17,359
I'm going to argue for something like

861
00:34:14,440 --> 00:34:18,879
0.1% or five you know 0.5% that's a

862
00:34:17,359 --> 00:34:21,280
that's a much easier thing to deal with

863
00:34:18,879 --> 00:34:21,280
counting

864
00:34:22,359 --> 00:34:28,520
wise online question all right uh reum

865
00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:30,119
has asked

866
00:34:28,520 --> 00:34:32,159
how much can you prevent miners from

867
00:34:30,119 --> 00:34:36,159
undercutting each other accepting low

868
00:34:32,159 --> 00:34:38,200
fee transactions do you or orphan all

869
00:34:36,159 --> 00:34:40,960
blocks well again I mean what I'm

870
00:34:38,200 --> 00:34:42,919
talking about is a demage soft fork and

871
00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:46,480
a soft Fork means that we now have this

872
00:34:42,919 --> 00:34:48,200
new rule that blocks must conform to and

873
00:34:46,480 --> 00:34:50,320
in this case the rule is you know you do

874
00:34:48,200 --> 00:34:54,359
your sum of inputs times this tax rate

875
00:34:50,320 --> 00:34:56,480
all and in a soft Fork if miners try to

876
00:34:54,359 --> 00:34:57,599
undercut it it's not that we're you know

877
00:34:56,480 --> 00:34:59,839
that they're undercutting is that

878
00:34:57,599 --> 00:35:02,640
they've created an invalid block and

879
00:34:59,839 --> 00:35:06,000
since it's an invalid block it'll just

880
00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:08,560
get ignored and that's that now if

881
00:35:06,000 --> 00:35:10,880
miners do this in the Bitcoin Community

882
00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:13,440
as a whole disagrees you certainly could

883
00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:15,640
be in a situation where a small

884
00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:17,760
percentage of miners are producing

885
00:35:15,640 --> 00:35:19,839
invalid blocks and people see you know

886
00:35:17,760 --> 00:35:22,680
one confirmation on their transactions

887
00:35:19,839 --> 00:35:25,599
but in general I mean frankly this is

888
00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:27,320
why for at least large transactions

889
00:35:25,599 --> 00:35:29,119
advice has always been

890
00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:30,960
one you know one confirmation isn't

891
00:35:29,119 --> 00:35:33,560
really enough you really should wait a

892
00:35:30,960 --> 00:35:35,400
little more and you know for starters I

893
00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:37,000
mean it's normal for every once in a

894
00:35:35,400 --> 00:35:39,480
while for two blocks get created at the

895
00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:42,560
same height you know sometimes you even

896
00:35:39,480 --> 00:35:44,320
get um three you know even get like two

897
00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:46,280
block deep chains because you just out

898
00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:47,640
of luck two blocks get created at the

899
00:35:46,280 --> 00:35:49,720
same height another two get created at

900
00:35:47,640 --> 00:35:51,440
the same height certainly by the time

901
00:35:49,720 --> 00:35:54,480
you get to like 10 confirmations it's

902
00:35:51,440 --> 00:35:56,119
incredibly unlikely other than you know

903
00:35:54,480 --> 00:35:59,680
weird technical failures like the

904
00:35:56,119 --> 00:36:02,400
inflation bug in was it 2012 or so but

905
00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:04,319
you know small small numbers of reorgs

906
00:36:02,400 --> 00:36:06,160
do happen on occasion and that's just

907
00:36:04,319 --> 00:36:08,319
how it is and it would it would go up in

908
00:36:06,160 --> 00:36:11,200
this case but I suspect if miners

909
00:36:08,319 --> 00:36:12,880
actually do the softw workk the miners

910
00:36:11,200 --> 00:36:16,359
who disagree with this will quickly just

911
00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:18,839
quit Bitcoin or adopt the new

912
00:36:16,359 --> 00:36:20,640
rule taxing the the value of a

913
00:36:18,839 --> 00:36:23,079
transaction are you concerned that this

914
00:36:20,640 --> 00:36:25,280
with further disincentivize transacting

915
00:36:23,079 --> 00:36:27,240
on layer one and moving

916
00:36:25,280 --> 00:36:29,560
to um

917
00:36:27,240 --> 00:36:31,520
Layer Two and so on without having the

918
00:36:29,560 --> 00:36:32,400
security of layer one well it doesn't

919
00:36:31,520 --> 00:36:35,280
though

920
00:36:32,400 --> 00:36:37,440
because Layer Two you know all layer two

921
00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:39,480
systems depend on layer one a lightning

922
00:36:37,440 --> 00:36:41,839
channel is a layer two system but the

923
00:36:39,480 --> 00:36:43,440
value of the Bitcoin tied up in that

924
00:36:41,839 --> 00:36:45,960
lightning channels dependent of the

925
00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:48,000
value on layer one so there is no

926
00:36:45,960 --> 00:36:50,040
difference whether or not I hold my

927
00:36:48,000 --> 00:36:51,920
Bitcoin on layer one or Layer Two

928
00:36:50,040 --> 00:36:53,680
because they all go back to layer one

929
00:36:51,920 --> 00:36:56,040
you know I personally have quite a bit

930
00:36:53,680 --> 00:36:57,240
of money tied up in lightning channels

931
00:36:56,040 --> 00:37:00,000
and all those light lightning channels

932
00:36:57,240 --> 00:37:02,079
are onchain Bitcoin transactions the

933
00:37:00,000 --> 00:37:04,200
only you know all lightning is doing is

934
00:37:02,079 --> 00:37:06,359
having this very clever system of

935
00:37:04,200 --> 00:37:07,760
lightning of you know transactions that

936
00:37:06,359 --> 00:37:09,200
aren't actually put on chain and

937
00:37:07,760 --> 00:37:11,560
carefully arranged with incentives and

938
00:37:09,200 --> 00:37:13,640
all this but they're still transactions

939
00:37:11,560 --> 00:37:15,400
you know there's still money on chain

940
00:37:13,640 --> 00:37:17,839
you know and even in custodial wallets

941
00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:19,440
like wallet of Satoshi where you are

942
00:37:17,839 --> 00:37:22,119
trusting wallet of Satoshi with your

943
00:37:19,440 --> 00:37:23,640
balance if demage is implemented they

944
00:37:22,119 --> 00:37:25,800
too would eventually have to say well

945
00:37:23,640 --> 00:37:27,880
actually your balance goes down over

946
00:37:25,800 --> 00:37:29,760
time because we know that it will cost

947
00:37:27,880 --> 00:37:32,640
more money to actually move these coins

948
00:37:29,760 --> 00:37:33,720
on chain you know it's there really is

949
00:37:32,640 --> 00:37:36,319
no difference between layer one and

950
00:37:33,720 --> 00:37:36,319
Layer Two in the

951
00:37:40,440 --> 00:37:44,560
scenario the most exciting thing that is

952
00:37:42,680 --> 00:37:47,000
happening in entire crypto right now is

953
00:37:44,560 --> 00:37:49,440
ordinal BTC is more exciting than

954
00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:52,119
ethereum at this present moment everyone

955
00:37:49,440 --> 00:37:53,960
is converging around BTC everyone is

956
00:37:52,119 --> 00:37:57,040
becoming a utxo

957
00:37:53,960 --> 00:37:59,680
developer so instead of imposing a

958
00:37:57,040 --> 00:38:02,560
mandatory system of Taxation within

959
00:37:59,680 --> 00:38:04,920
Bitcoin why not gradually increase the

960
00:38:02,560 --> 00:38:07,280
productive capacity of minor of

961
00:38:04,920 --> 00:38:10,319
entrepreneurs to keep on growing an

962
00:38:07,280 --> 00:38:11,960
onchain economy as we are witnessing

963
00:38:10,319 --> 00:38:15,440
right now in the past four

964
00:38:11,960 --> 00:38:18,160
months it is very profitable to have

965
00:38:15,440 --> 00:38:20,160
this onchain economy it's very simple

966
00:38:18,160 --> 00:38:23,000
Bitcoin people like to be able to go

967
00:38:20,160 --> 00:38:25,200
rent full nodes you know full nodes are

968
00:38:23,000 --> 00:38:27,160
how you go and validate yourself that

969
00:38:25,200 --> 00:38:29,760
your Bitcoin is real I mean

970
00:38:27,160 --> 00:38:32,920
full nodes or why well I mean full nodes

971
00:38:29,760 --> 00:38:34,119
or why implementing tail emission is so

972
00:38:32,920 --> 00:38:36,520
difficult on bitcoin because you got to

973
00:38:34,119 --> 00:38:38,160
get everyone to agree now if Bitcoin was

974
00:38:36,520 --> 00:38:39,760
you know bsv and there were like less

975
00:38:38,160 --> 00:38:41,200
than a dozen full nodes out there yeah

976
00:38:39,760 --> 00:38:42,720
it'd be pretty easy to add tail Mission

977
00:38:41,200 --> 00:38:44,280
pretty easy to do all kinds of things

978
00:38:42,720 --> 00:38:46,640
the market is giving you a solution

979
00:38:44,280 --> 00:38:48,760
though so why not work with the market

980
00:38:46,640 --> 00:38:52,520
in that solution instead of imposing

981
00:38:48,760 --> 00:38:56,560
mandatory taxation taxation is

982
00:38:52,520 --> 00:38:58,440
theft taxation's consensual theft in the

983
00:38:56,560 --> 00:39:00,839
case of Bitcoin we do have taxation we

984
00:38:58,440 --> 00:39:02,599
have a 1.5% inflation rate everyone

985
00:39:00,839 --> 00:39:04,200
holding Bitcoins agreed to it in the

986
00:39:02,599 --> 00:39:06,440
case of Monero you know you have your

987
00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:09,240
tail emission which I mean I think on

988
00:39:06,440 --> 00:39:11,319
the numbers Wise It's like 05% monetary

989
00:39:09,240 --> 00:39:13,200
inflation assuming no lost coins it's

990
00:39:11,319 --> 00:39:14,680
probably like you know rough so a bit

991
00:39:13,200 --> 00:39:15,680
bit less than that assuming loss coins

992
00:39:14,680 --> 00:39:17,680
or bit sorry a bit more than that

993
00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:19,599
assuming loss coins you know you all

994
00:39:17,680 --> 00:39:23,599
bought into this by choosing to buy

995
00:39:19,599 --> 00:39:25,240
Monero it is it is what it is but the

996
00:39:23,599 --> 00:39:27,359
fact of the matter is as long as people

997
00:39:25,240 --> 00:39:29,640
wants go and be a ble to easily run full

998
00:39:27,359 --> 00:39:31,560
noes that is incompatible with

999
00:39:29,640 --> 00:39:34,640
increasing block size you know we fought

1000
00:39:31,560 --> 00:39:36,280
this battle Bitcoin before and The

1001
00:39:34,640 --> 00:39:39,040
Winning Side was yeah we're going to go

1002
00:39:36,280 --> 00:39:40,359
and impl lightning and if it means that

1003
00:39:39,040 --> 00:39:42,599
people can't go and necessarily do

1004
00:39:40,359 --> 00:39:45,079
ordinals the way that they want to not

1005
00:39:42,599 --> 00:39:48,560
my problem you know I personally have

1006
00:39:45,079 --> 00:39:51,599
worked um on something called RGB

1007
00:39:48,560 --> 00:39:54,560
through my you know C seal proof martial

1008
00:39:51,599 --> 00:39:56,079
ideas and so on and long story short is

1009
00:39:54,560 --> 00:39:59,680
I've worked with a team who are creating

1010
00:39:56,079 --> 00:40:01,440
way to trade tokens on bitcoin with

1011
00:39:59,680 --> 00:40:04,040
effectively unlimited scalability you

1012
00:40:01,440 --> 00:40:06,480
know with one transaction per block you

1013
00:40:04,040 --> 00:40:09,240
could easily have a you know a couple

1014
00:40:06,480 --> 00:40:10,640
billion transactions per second how do

1015
00:40:09,240 --> 00:40:12,280
you do that well you make big Merkel

1016
00:40:10,640 --> 00:40:13,400
trees and Merkel trees and Merkel trees

1017
00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:15,680
you know and this is could be a whole

1018
00:40:13,400 --> 00:40:18,000
another talk but that is the Bitcoin

1019
00:40:15,680 --> 00:40:19,920
approach to this we accept that the base

1020
00:40:18,000 --> 00:40:24,000
layer is always going to be somewhat

1021
00:40:19,920 --> 00:40:25,920
limited and the tradeoff is that when we

1022
00:40:24,000 --> 00:40:28,160
when we need to do more transaction per

1023
00:40:25,920 --> 00:40:30,359
second more interesting things we throw

1024
00:40:28,160 --> 00:40:32,160
software at it frankly lightning is

1025
00:40:30,359 --> 00:40:33,800
really complex like the fact that

1026
00:40:32,160 --> 00:40:35,680
lightning works at all is a miracle of

1027
00:40:33,800 --> 00:40:37,480
software engineering but you throw

1028
00:40:35,680 --> 00:40:39,359
enough smart people at it and you can go

1029
00:40:37,480 --> 00:40:41,359
get it to work and Bitcoin accepts that

1030
00:40:39,359 --> 00:40:42,319
trade-off if you don't like it have

1031
00:40:41,359 --> 00:40:45,000
another

1032
00:40:42,319 --> 00:40:47,040
currency we have time for a few more

1033
00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:49,319
questions um and then we're going to do

1034
00:40:47,040 --> 00:40:52,359
our proof of work vers proof of stake

1035
00:40:49,319 --> 00:40:54,880
panel which Peter will be on so I think

1036
00:40:52,359 --> 00:40:57,240
we'll take a little break so he can uh

1037
00:40:54,880 --> 00:40:59,480
get some water but yeah a few more

1038
00:40:57,240 --> 00:41:02,560
questions just to round it out geonic

1039
00:40:59,480 --> 00:41:05,720
and then Artic there's an online

1040
00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:07,160
question um theemerged soft Fork doesn't

1041
00:41:05,720 --> 00:41:09,480
fix the problem of the circulating

1042
00:41:07,160 --> 00:41:11,720
Supply eventually going to zero via lost

1043
00:41:09,480 --> 00:41:13,720
coins to fix that issue would you prefer

1044
00:41:11,720 --> 00:41:14,599
tail emission hard fork or a demerge

1045
00:41:13,720 --> 00:41:17,760
hard

1046
00:41:14,599 --> 00:41:21,440
Fork well keep so so the question there

1047
00:41:17,760 --> 00:41:23,920
is basically in the long run the supply

1048
00:41:21,440 --> 00:41:26,440
of actual coins in existence that are

1049
00:41:23,920 --> 00:41:28,920
tradable goes to zero as people like

1050
00:41:26,440 --> 00:41:30,960
assuming a fixed supply of coins the

1051
00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:35,119
supply will eventually Trend towards

1052
00:41:30,960 --> 00:41:37,119
zero because people go lose coins now I

1053
00:41:35,119 --> 00:41:40,400
wouldn't call that a problem that really

1054
00:41:37,119 --> 00:41:42,400
needs to be fixed and the reason why is

1055
00:41:40,400 --> 00:41:44,160
again the rate of lost coins the

1056
00:41:42,400 --> 00:41:46,800
absolute number of coins that are lost

1057
00:41:44,160 --> 00:41:50,160
per second is a function

1058
00:41:46,800 --> 00:41:52,680
of How likely people are to lose a coin

1059
00:41:50,160 --> 00:41:55,760
and the total supply of coins that are

1060
00:41:52,680 --> 00:41:58,240
not lost well as that total Supply goes

1061
00:41:55,760 --> 00:42:00,760
down that rate the absolute rate also

1062
00:41:58,240 --> 00:42:03,560
goes down it has to if there's a 1%

1063
00:42:00,760 --> 00:42:05,119
chance of losing a coin per year you

1064
00:42:03,560 --> 00:42:08,680
know whether or not there's 21 million

1065
00:42:05,119 --> 00:42:11,160
coins or one it's still a 1% chance and

1066
00:42:08,680 --> 00:42:12,960
that's why it's a curve the only thing

1067
00:42:11,160 --> 00:42:15,640
limitate like the only technical reason

1068
00:42:12,960 --> 00:42:17,640
you care about this is eventually the

1069
00:42:15,640 --> 00:42:19,559
supply gets so low that divisibility

1070
00:42:17,640 --> 00:42:21,359
matters you know and for that we're

1071
00:42:19,559 --> 00:42:24,000
talking probably hundreds thousands of

1072
00:42:21,359 --> 00:42:25,839
years out in the future I'm not frankly

1073
00:42:24,000 --> 00:42:27,400
I'm not care I don't care about planning

1074
00:42:25,839 --> 00:42:30,000
that far

1075
00:42:27,400 --> 00:42:32,680
like I'll be very I I think we'll be

1076
00:42:30,000 --> 00:42:34,880
very lucky if computers exist 5,000

1077
00:42:32,680 --> 00:42:37,599
years into the future and you know we

1078
00:42:34,880 --> 00:42:39,880
can even like be be here with you know

1079
00:42:37,599 --> 00:42:41,599
electric lights like that implies you

1080
00:42:39,880 --> 00:42:43,359
know human civilization survive that

1081
00:42:41,599 --> 00:42:44,880
long I also think it'll be quite lucky

1082
00:42:43,359 --> 00:42:47,240
if bitcoin's the thing that exists that

1083
00:42:44,880 --> 00:42:49,839
long I mean I'm willing to plan on like

1084
00:42:47,240 --> 00:42:51,640
100e time Horizons but you know 5,000

1085
00:42:49,839 --> 00:42:55,040
years come

1086
00:42:51,640 --> 00:42:56,760
on my next question deals with planning

1087
00:42:55,040 --> 00:43:01,599
over roughly

1088
00:42:56,760 --> 00:43:03,720
a um 15year Horizon so since the um

1089
00:43:01,599 --> 00:43:06,680
Bitcoin paper was written and you can

1090
00:43:03,720 --> 00:43:09,520
technically verify this uh Nelson's law

1091
00:43:06,680 --> 00:43:12,079
which is the ability of a um home or

1092
00:43:09,520 --> 00:43:13,800
small business um bandwidth that you

1093
00:43:12,079 --> 00:43:17,400
would get a home or small business in

1094
00:43:13,800 --> 00:43:20,480
United States um has increased roughly

1095
00:43:17,400 --> 00:43:23,160
by a factor of 350 times it's actually

1096
00:43:20,480 --> 00:43:25,720
faster in the developing world so my

1097
00:43:23,160 --> 00:43:28,280
question to you is this at what point is

1098
00:43:25,720 --> 00:43:31,400
it reasonable for a coin like Bitcoin to

1099
00:43:28,280 --> 00:43:33,920
actually increase that block size in

1100
00:43:31,400 --> 00:43:36,079
order to allow some growth because

1101
00:43:33,920 --> 00:43:38,880
obviously as far as I can see the

1102
00:43:36,079 --> 00:43:41,720
ability to run a node today at 350

1103
00:43:38,880 --> 00:43:45,119
megabytes per block will be comparable

1104
00:43:41,720 --> 00:43:47,160
to one megabyte back in 2008

1105
00:43:45,119 --> 00:43:49,119
thanks so the argument there is

1106
00:43:47,160 --> 00:43:51,400
basically bandwidth increases mean that

1107
00:43:49,119 --> 00:43:53,480
you can do a block size increase and

1108
00:43:51,400 --> 00:43:55,359
right away I'll point out well we don't

1109
00:43:53,480 --> 00:43:57,960
care about raw bandwidth we care about

1110
00:43:55,359 --> 00:43:59,920
sensorship resistance badwi you know we

1111
00:43:57,960 --> 00:44:02,280
we very much want it to be possible turn

1112
00:43:59,920 --> 00:44:06,200
a Bitcoin not over tour and tour is not

1113
00:44:02,280 --> 00:44:08,040
gotten faster like Rob andwith has also

1114
00:44:06,200 --> 00:44:11,000
all this stuff all this stuff goes back

1115
00:44:08,040 --> 00:44:14,440
to cost of storage of computes and so on

1116
00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:16,599
and the fact is mors law is dying like

1117
00:44:14,440 --> 00:44:18,920
you just got to go look at the cost per

1118
00:44:16,599 --> 00:44:22,280
transistor and it is not decreasing like

1119
00:44:18,920 --> 00:44:24,480
it used to you know the cost for storage

1120
00:44:22,280 --> 00:44:26,680
is kind of looking kind of shoddy like

1121
00:44:24,480 --> 00:44:29,359
it's just not decreasing like it used to

1122
00:44:26,680 --> 00:44:34,079
there are limits to computation

1123
00:44:29,359 --> 00:44:37,400
and I will not make the bet that in 15

1124
00:44:34,079 --> 00:44:39,599
years we see dramatic decreases in the

1125
00:44:37,400 --> 00:44:43,200
cost of bandwidth cost of storage and

1126
00:44:39,599 --> 00:44:45,000
the cost of compute you know we've had

1127
00:44:43,200 --> 00:44:48,839
incredibly good run we've been very very

1128
00:44:45,000 --> 00:44:50,880
lucky but the how computers are built is

1129
00:44:48,839 --> 00:44:53,040
getting to things where feature sizes

1130
00:44:50,880 --> 00:44:54,760
are on the order of atoms you know

1131
00:44:53,040 --> 00:44:56,880
nobody knows how to make a transistor

1132
00:44:54,760 --> 00:44:58,280
smaller than one atom

1133
00:44:56,880 --> 00:45:00,520
I mean what would what would it even be

1134
00:44:58,280 --> 00:45:02,920
made out of and yet our transistors are

1135
00:45:00,520 --> 00:45:04,480
countable numbers of atoms already and

1136
00:45:02,920 --> 00:45:07,319
realistically we'll probably run into

1137
00:45:04,480 --> 00:45:09,599
problems before that I mean it's just

1138
00:45:07,319 --> 00:45:11,400
not a good bet and the fact is the

1139
00:45:09,599 --> 00:45:14,200
Bitcoin Community is quite happy to go

1140
00:45:11,400 --> 00:45:16,079
on with the way it is now will the

1141
00:45:14,200 --> 00:45:18,240
discussion look different in 100 years

1142
00:45:16,079 --> 00:45:20,960
maybe maybe it will in 10 years but

1143
00:45:18,240 --> 00:45:22,839
until it does no one's going to change I

1144
00:45:20,960 --> 00:45:25,040
am very willing to take the counterparty

1145
00:45:22,839 --> 00:45:26,720
to that bet and this is why I'm holding

1146
00:45:25,040 --> 00:45:29,240
Monero

1147
00:45:26,720 --> 00:45:31,160
well go for it all right Monero market

1148
00:45:29,240 --> 00:45:32,920
caps a lot less that's that's a good

1149
00:45:31,160 --> 00:45:35,280
good line to wrap it up on I I got to

1150
00:45:32,920 --> 00:45:38,000
take advantage of that one

1151
00:45:35,280 --> 00:45:42,200
Peter huge round of applause for Peter

1152
00:45:38,000 --> 00:45:42,200
Todd thank you man thank

1153
00:45:45,350 --> 00:45:57,880
[Music]

1154
00:45:54,880 --> 00:45:57,880
you

1155
00:46:01,620 --> 00:46:05,570
[Music]